PEP // Q2 2026 EARNINGS
THEVALUETRADER RESEARCH
EARNINGS DASHBOARD — JUL 9, 2026
REF: PEP-Q2-2026-EARNINGS
PepsiCo — Q2 2026 Earnings
Revenue beat, narrow core EPS miss — international carries the quarter as U.S. food and beverage demand softens
Headline
Revenue tops estimates at $24.18B — but a one-cent EPS miss and a 4% U.S. beverage volume decline keep the turnaround story unresolved.
NET REVENUE$24.18B — +6.4% YoY
ORGANIC REVENUE GROWTH+2.4%
CORE (ADJUSTED) EPS$2.20 — vs $2.21 est.
GLOBAL VOLUME (FOOD / BEV)+3% / +2% — fastest since 2022
STOCK REACTION (PREMARKET)−3.2% intraday low, −0.7% into the open
FY2026 GUIDANCEReaffirmed — unchanged
Cleared the Bar
Beats
- Net revenue $24.18B vs. $23.95–23.97B consensus — a clear top-line beat, +6.4% YoY reported
- Global foods volume +3%, beverage volume +2% — the fastest combined pace since 2022
- International segments (APAC Foods, Intl. Beverages Franchise, EMEA) all posted organic volume gains
- International operating margin +1 point in the quarter
- First-half productivity came in at a record pace, with more gains guided for H2
Fell Short
Misses & Concerns
- Core EPS $2.20 vs. $2.21 est. — a narrow miss of $0.01 (−0.45%)
- North America Beverages (PBNA) volume down 4% in the quarter
- North America Foods (PFNA) volume flat — recovery has not yet reaccelerated
- PBNA operating margin down ~90 basis points YoY
- Cautious tone on full-year profit outlook weighed on shares pre-market
φ 02Income Statement Snapshot
NET REVENUE (Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025)$24.18B vs $22.73B — +6.4%
ORGANIC REVENUE+2.4%
CORE EPS (Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025)$2.20 vs $2.12 — +3.8%
H1 2026 REPORTED REVENUE+7%
H1 2026 REPORTED EPS+6% (+3% constant currency)
GROSS MARGIN (TTM)54.38%
MARKET CAP / P/E$194.8B / 22.6x
DIVIDEND YIELD4.15% — 53+ consecutive annual increases
For reference — Q1 2026 (reported April 16): net revenue $19.44B (+8.5%), organic revenue +2.6%, core EPS $1.61 (+9%), core operating margin 15.7% (+10bps). Q1 marked an inflection in PFNA volume; Q2 shows that inflection has not yet carried through to North America as a whole.
North America — Moderation Continues
- PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA): volume flat for the quarter, though the business gained share in salty snacks and returned to volume growth on that specific category
- PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA): volume down 4% — the case-pack water transition has largely lapped, but underlying demand remains soft
- PBNA operating margin compressed ~90 basis points YoY on cost pressure and category softness
- CEO Laguarta: category performance "moderated with consumer budgets tightening due to rising inflationary pressures"
- Context: U.S. gas prices hit a 4-year high of $4.56/gallon in late May amid the Iran conflict, squeezing discretionary grocery spend
International — The Growth Engine
- Asia Pacific Foods, International Beverages Franchise, and EMEA all delivered organic volume gains in the quarter
- Latin America Foods remained resilient, consistent with recent quarters
- International operating margin expanded roughly 1 percentage point YoY
- International revenue is on pace to exceed $40 billion for full-year 2026
- Management noted no observed demand disruption from the Iran conflict in its international footprint to date
Ramon Laguarta — Chairman & CEO
"Results were tempered in the quarter as U.S. food and beverage category performance moderated with consumer budgets tightening due to rising inflationary pressures."
Context: management confirmed tariff refund claims are expected to add roughly one full point of EPS growth for the full year, and reiterated that record first-half productivity gains give the company room to protect margins even as commodity and tariff costs remain elevated.
Bull Case
Positives
- Revenue beat confirms international is now large and fast-growing enough to carry the group through a domestic soft patch — on pace for $40B+ international revenue in 2026
- Global food and beverage volume growth (+3% / +2%) is the fastest combined pace since 2022, evidence that pricing has not permanently broken demand
- Full-year guidance was reaffirmed unchanged — organic revenue +2–4%, core constant-currency EPS +4–6% — management sees no need to reset expectations
- Record H1 productivity savings, with more guided for H2, gives PepsiCo a self-funded lever to defend margin without relying on price alone
- Roughly one point of expected full-year EPS growth is now underpinned by tariff refund claims — a tailwind not fully reflected in the pre-print consensus
Bear Case
Concerns
- North America Beverages volume fell 4% — a meaningful deterioration that overshadows the modest PFNA share gains in salty snacks
- The one-cent core EPS miss, however narrow, breaks a run of consecutive beats and gives bears a headline data point regardless of context
- PBNA operating margin compression (~90bps) shows North America profitability is still absorbing cost pressure, not just volume softness
- Consumer budget tightening — tied to a 4-year-high gas price spike during the Iran conflict — is a macro headwind PepsiCo cannot control through its own initiatives
- The stock's cautious premarket tone on the full-year profit outlook suggests the market is not yet convinced the North America turnaround is back on track
φ 06Full-Year Guidance & Outlook
Management left its full-year targets fully intact following Q2 — a signal that despite the North America softness, the underlying model is still tracking to plan:
ORGANIC REVENUE GROWTH (FY26)2% – 4%
CORE CONSTANT-CURRENCY EPS GROWTH (FY26)4% – 6%
FX BENEFIT (TRANSLATED)~1 point — reported revenue +4–6%, core EPS growth ~5–7%
TARIFF REFUND CONTRIBUTION~1 point of EPS growth, full year
H2 PRODUCTIVITYAdditional gains guided beyond record H1 pace
φ 07Market & Analyst Reaction
- Shares fell as much as 3.2% in early premarket trading (to ~$137.96 from a $142.51 prior close) before paring losses to roughly −0.7% into the opening bell
- 16-analyst consensus going into the print: EPS $2.21 (range $2.14–$2.55), revenue $23.96B (range $23.67–$24.18B) — PepsiCo landed at the very top of the revenue range
- Estimate trajectory had already turned cautious ahead of the print — EPS estimates drifted down ~1.3% over 30 days and ~2.6% over 90 days
- PEP carries a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating; next scheduled report is Q3 2026, expected on or around October 8, 2026
φ 08TVT Verdict — Quick Reference
This was a "clean but unconvincing" quarter: the top line and volume numbers say the demand base is intact, the bottom line says the U.S. consumer is still the swing factor. International's move toward $40B+ in 2026 revenue is the most important structural datapoint in the release — it means PepsiCo's growth algorithm no longer depends on a North America recovery to hit its own full-year guidance, even though North America is still where the market's attention (and the stock's near-term sentiment) will stay focused. The one-cent EPS miss is more optics than substance, but the 4% PBNA volume decline is a real data point that keeps the "turnaround" framing alive rather than closed. With guidance reaffirmed and roughly a point of EPS tailwind now locked in from tariff refunds, the setup into H2 is more about execution than about needing a new plan.
Core EPS
$2.20 (miss $0.01)
Next Earnings
~Oct 8, 2026
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